THE
WARP STORM

So this is a long shot but....

I'm trying to figure out the inc in potential (average) damage from use of a specific raven guard strat that gives 6's to wound an -1 inc in ap.

And heres what I've figured out so far...

%hit×%wound=X
X×5/6=Y
X×1/6=Z
((Y×%failed save)+(Z×%failed save))xnumber of attacks=average damage from x unit with strat used?

Am I wrong or Am I thinking correct?

Not sure what your working out here but I know goon hammer does alot on math hammer as they call it

Sry:
The normal math format to use if you want to figure out the general or middleway, damage from w40k is as follows:

Prob to hit × probability to wound × - armour save, or the probability for the save to miss x (FnP if there is any) × damage = the general damage from one shot × x attacks = the whole attack sequence.

Eks: MeQ 10 models firing Bolt rifle -1 ap in rapid fire range vs MeQ (MeQ = Marine equivalent unit so t4 sv 3+ bs 3+)

(4/6)×(3/6)×(3/6)×1=0,16 damage × 20= 3,3 dmg so one and a halv marine models are take out by 10 intercessors firing in RF range with Bolt rifles without rerolls....

Now I wanted to implement what happens or the average gain from a specific strategem in the same equation. (6's to wound gives one ekstra ap).... why I'm taking 5/6 of the answer past wound and running it through the rest aswell as taking 1/6 of the answer and giving it one ekstra ap.... its an armywide strat that i can use in the tactical doctrine for rapid fire and assault weapons....

The more I look at this the more I question that I was ever good at maths, because it's making my brain overheat!

Have you tried putting the numbers in to see if the results are within a reasonable range? Would give you an idea of whether you're on the right track. In the meantime I'll see if I can find something similar to compare...

I have an increase by about 2 wounds from 50 shots in my equation.... but the problem im trying to figure out is as follows: by taking 1/6 of the answer after the wound roll isn't correct because its 1/6 of the wound roll, not 1/6 of the answer from how many that's wounding.... :p so I guess the 6 needs to be implemented when your rolling to wound ie: (%hit×%1/6to wound×%(not saving -1ap)×dmg)×Xattacks=general dmg from just those 6's to wound... Let's call the answer Y

(%hit×(%wound-1/6)×%not saving×dmg)×number of attacks I guess? =Z which is the general dmg from the rest of the attacks without the 6?

Y+Z= total general dmg from those attacks?

Issues: Do I need to subtract 1/6 of those attacks since they already have happened in the first equation or is it enough to just reduce the wound probability by 1/6 and that's enough.?

I've been looking for an answer, but I can't seem to find a good clarification for my problem. I guess I need to find a math teacher somewhere:p

It might be a long way around the issue and thus technically bad maths, but could you work them out individually? Take the wounds generated from a 1/6 chance (representing the natural 6), take the wounds generated from the other rolls in a separate calculation, and then just add them together at the end?
It's not pretty but I don't see why it wouldn't work.

Ye what I did in my last post.... but do I need to take into account that 1/6 of the wounds have happened?

Example vs Meq in tactical doctrine useing RF1 s4ap-2d1
And let's say 60 shots
((4/6)×(1/6)×(5/6)×1)×60=5,55d=X

((4/6)×(2/6)×(4/6)×1)×60=8,88d=Y

X+Y=14,43~14 damage

And without the strat then:

((4/6)×(3/6)×(4/6)×1)×60=13,3 ~13 damage

This ofc changed by a lot if we change the weapon type or the to hit %.

It's a lot better going from -1 ap to -2 ap than going from the actual weapon being used ap-2 to ap-3

But is this correct. In my mind it should be:p

If it is then the gain from 1cp isn't much? Ofc I haven't started looking at it if I had any reroll 1's to hit for instance or wound

Just closing this thread, since the correct answer is to implement the 6's in the wound roll and do 2 different operations and the summing them up in the end to get the complete answer.

Now if anyone wanted to know how it went then here is the general rundown for this strategem:

Sine this is a probabilities game:p then the following is true. Making the attacked model do a 5+ save....
6/4 of the time the saving model will fail. So most of the time^^ But having only a 1/6 or 6+ save then allmost all of hes rolls will fail.... that's why weapons that has a high or semi high ap that gets even higher on theyre ap value isn't so good, since they won't change the probability for getting a wound through by much.... The probability of the roll failing is so high anyway from the start.

But taking a weapon that has 0 ap and going to town with those kinds of strat is a big deal.... again becouse of how probability works....

For 50 shots with a bolt rifle should give around 1 - 2 more wounds by useing the strat.

But using it on a normal bolter ie ap-1 in tactical and making those 6's change the weapon to ap-2 should net you about 4 more wounds in general by useing the strat while shooting 50 shots... that's a 50%increase in extra damage from the strategem but with the same amount of shots as with the bolt rifle....

Rerolls and other modifiers to hit or wound doesn't really change the strat in many ways.

Summarise:
It ofc gives an increase in damage potential and therefore isn't a bad strategem, but the gain of it is rather small, and if your low on CP then I wouldn't use it even if its only 1 CP, it does increase in Worth if someone has the ability to shoot again. The intercessor strategem for instance.

Allso the potential of the strategem depends a lot with who your firing on ofc, and what your firing with:
Against MeQ in cover so a 2+save its actually worth its points since its 1CP for some extra dmg. And your changing the sv roll from a 4+ to a 5+ with a bolt rifle. Or even better from a 3+ to a 4+sv with a normal bolter.

It doesn't make you go through hoops by useing it either, and it's armywide aswell and last through the turn, not just a phase. And your going to fire those weapons anyway^^

The strat allso becomes better the more RF or assault weapons your firing: atleast 50+ shots to make it count.

Lastly I would say this isn't something your going to use every game and probably not many games either, but if the situation is there and you have enough models on the table still to benefit from it, then its not the worst thing to do either. Every extra wound done is extra wounds there still firing back in your opponents turn;)

Thanks @James and @pawl the help;)

Cheers!

Don't think I helped much but sounds like you got it to work

One of the reasons I'm glad I don't play is that I don't have to go down this rabbit hole, because I'm not sure I would be able to keep up
Glad you got the answer though @Pharia, though the number of average additional wounds sounds low to me, given the number of shots fired!